Zijin Mining (2899 HK): This Is A Short

• In my June note, Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK) appeared fully valued; but I (thankfully) stopped short of being outright bearish. Its share price is up 48% since!

• A basket of peers is also up 37% since that note. Gold is up~8%, and 41% YTD. On the 14th September, Zijin released Zijin Gold's PHIP. 1H25 numbers were solid.

• However, Zijin Gold's earnings are by no stretch an outlier. Zijin's Mining's current share price is now baking in exceptional (unrealistic?) metrics for the gold play spin-off.

The Trade:

• I can envisage a market cap of US$20-25bn. Maybe US$30bn if pushing PER or EV/EBITDA metrics. $40bn appears unhinged.

• I'd be shorting Zijin Mining here. Short interest is at an all-time high.

• And according to the Quiddity Team, there is something like US$800mm (~200mn shares) of Zijin Mining to be sold on Friday at the close.

This insight is labelled bearish as I'm not bullish here.