Uranium's Shortfall And Nuclear Viability

• Back in April 2022, around six weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I touched on the disruption to the uranium supply chain in Uranium: Fuelling Fears.

• The war spurred renewed interest in nuclear energy as a source of domestic power. Uranium prices have tripled since the invasion.

• A recent report from the World Nuclear Association forecast a significant step-up in demand for uranium for reactors, together with a material output drop from mines "as deposits are exhausted".

I've been a uranium wonk for years and a proponent of nuclear power. Therefore this insight will have a biased tilt.

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The Report

• The World Nuclear Association released its report on the 5th September.

  • The report is gated; however a quick summary provided stated:

From the current 372 GWe of nuclear capacity in 2024, the Reference Scenario projects that nuclear capacity will reach 686 GWe by 2040 (up 60 GWe from the 2023 edition), with capacity reaching 966 GWe in the Upper Scenario (up 35 GWe) and 582 GWe in the Lower Scenario (up 66 GWe).

Global reactor requirements for uranium in 2025 are estimated at about 68,920 tU. In the Reference Scenario these are expected to rise to just over 150,000 tU in 2040, with requirements rising to over 204,000 tU in the Upper Scenario and over 107,000 tU in the Lower Scenario by the same date.