Miniso (9896 HK)'s TOP TOY Angling For Labubu Mojo

• In MINISO (9896 HK)’s (Possible) TOP TOY Spin-Off Is Priced In, based on (then) available figures and applying a holding company discount, post spin-off, MINISO’s upside appeared limited.

• A listing application form has now been submitted to the HKEx, providing greater detail of TOP TOY’s finances, figures vastly different to those in MINISO’s recent segment accounts.

• The Labubu craze has resulted in a ~200% increase in Pop Mart (9992 HK)’s shares YTD. TOP TOY will be wanting to cash in on this exuberance.

The Trade:

• TOP TOY’s spin-off is now firmed.

• I see MINISO trading at a 19% discount to NAV even if TOP TOY is priced at a similar metric to Pop Mart (9992 HK).

• That suggests TOP TOY’s value is fully priced in.

This insight is labelled bearish as I’m not bullish here. Yes - MINISO is up 20% since my last insight. Although I was bullish at the time.